Dubai Economy expects a 4% growth in consumption and demand levels in the emirate’s household consumption sector during 2021, compared to 2020, particularly following the launch of the free and extensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Dubai.

The escalation expected is based on monitoring and analysis of recent data on aviation and tourism into Dubai and Google’s daily data on the mobility of individuals across malls, restaurants and other entertainment facilities in the emirate, among others. Recent data on the tourism and aviation sector reveal that Dubai’s airport remained the busiest globally in passenger movement.

The Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management in Dubai had announced the launch of the campaign earlier, and Dubai Health Authority stated that the vaccination process would take place across several stages, beginning with the most vulnerable groups (until the end of March 2021), including the elderly, frontline workers in public and private sectors, and those working in other vital occupations. The second phase will begin in April and will target all community members, including Dubai citizens and residents, with the goal of vaccinating 70% of the emirate’s population (community immunity level) by the end of 2021.

The vaccination campaign aimed at citizens and residents in Dubai represents an important step towards the return to normal life and economic recovery across various sectors economic activities affected by the precautionary measures, particularly labour-intensive activities.

The key sectors where COVID-19 had a major impact comprise residency services, restaurants, and conferences and exhibitions. Dubai had organised over 140 exhibitions and events that witnessed the participation of more than two million people in 2019. The arts and entertainment sector is expected to witness a remarkable recovery in the months ahead, especially in terms of activities and facilities that had been affected by physical distancing, such as parties, museum, theatres, cinemas, and various sports activities. Retailing is also expected to gain momentum as a result of the confidence brought in by the vaccine and increase of footfall across shopping centres. The return to normal life is also expected to lead to a reduction in remote working and learning, which will give additional impetus to economic recovery.

As a result of the strong interdependencies between sectors and economic activities, the expected recovery in various sectors, including restaurants and hotels, arts and entertainment, retail trade, and educational activities, will be clearly reflected in the transport sector, especially in mass transit, taxis, and school transportation, which were affected by the physical distancing measures.