The UAE K-12 market is set for 2-3%enrolment growth per annum in the next 10 years, according to the latest insights from strategy consulting firm, L.E.K. Consulting.

L.E.K.’s report, launched at the Education Investment MENA conference in Dubai, provides valuable insights on the education sector in the region, with a spotlight on the K-12 and higher education sub-sectors.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi recorded less than 3% decline in private K-12 enrolments through the pandemic year but are set to grow significantly by AY31.

The growth in Dubai’s private K-12 market has been driven by new families moving to the city. The leadership’s management of the economy, healthcare and international travel through the pandemic has strengthened Dubai’s position as a hub for talented expats.

The Dubai economy is expected to recover in AY22 and grow at an average ~3% p.a. over the next10 years. Consequently, private K-12 enrolment is expected to grow at 2-3% in line with economic growth, with the student population estimated to reach ~345,000 enrolments by AY31.

Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi K-12 market, valued at ~AED 4.3B, enrolls 176,000 students in the private sector. Total private K-12 enrolment is expected grow at ~3%p.a. between AY21-31 and reach ~230,000 by AY31, driven by growth in the local population

L.E.K. analysis also provides perspectives on curriculum and pricing trends. Interestingly, premium segments have continued to display resilience with many premium schools growing through the pandemic.In addition, British curriculum is the fastest growing across the two markets. The report also deep dives into the private education markets of Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Ashwin Assomull, Head of L.E.K. Consulting’s Global Education Practice, summarized the emerging trends in the private K-12 sector, “The pandemic forced the K-12 sector globally to shift online learning. UAE demonstrated best practice in getting children back to school as safely and quickly as possible. UAE school operators and regulators worked closely together to support students, teachers and parents through a difficult time and helped strengthen the country’s position as one of the most attractive destinations for investment in education.”

Higher education trends and opportunities

Dubai higher education is dominated by the private sector while the public sector accounts for less than 15% of the enrolment with only 2 scale public universities. COVID-19 has impacted enrolments in the last year, but industry experts expect the market to recover.

Enrolment is segmented into long term expatriates, Transnational Education (TNE) students & Emiratis. While long term expats and Emirati enrolments have declined,international students have increased. Growth is attributed to increasing enrolment of TNE students from India, China, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam and Philippines.

Ashwin Assomull explained, “International student enrolments are forecast to grow at ~5% CAGR to FY35, driven by increased demand from India, China and developing Asia. Given the regulatory changes in China, there are multiple barriers for Chinese students to get to Anglophone countries. Dubai can look at absorbing this demand and growing the private higher education market.”